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Chalmers Johnson observes that “60 years of enormous military spending is taking a dramatic toll on the rest of the economy.”
That is increasingly obvious. But why has the once-reliable US strategy of wasting money ceased to create prosperity? For that matter, how could such a plan ever have succeeded? To the naive observer, the idea that demand can sustain an economy sounds paradoxical. It is true that, under the assumption that all demand will be satisfied, net demand is equal to net production. But that assumption can only hold when there are abundant natural resources available to the economy in question. Under those happy circumstances, demand for goods and services does indeed have an apparently beneficial effect, in that the rate of utilization of natural resources increases. As those resources flow through the economy, they leave behind a trail of buildings, roads, houses, consumer products and all the other accoutrements of prosperity. But suppose there are not sufficient natural resources to satisfy demand? At that point the habit of stoking the economic furnace simply by turning up the thermostat fails to work its expected miracle. Oil, in particular, has supplied the powerful and conveniently deployed energy to create goods and services. The US was a net exporter of oil until some time in the 1960s, due to enormous discoveries of black liquids beneath Texas, Oklahoma and California. The rate of extraction of domestic petroleum was always able to increase to fuel the automobiles, tanks and airplanes necessary to satisfy any level of demand. But for any mineral resource, the pace of extraction eventually slows, as poorer veins of ore or deeper deposits of oil must be mined. In 1971 the US rate of extraction of domestic petroleum reached a maximum and then began to decline. At that moment, the era of US prosperity based on unlimited availability of cheap fuel came to an end. Large-scale imports of petroleum began to arrive on our shores from various parts of the world, particularly from the Persian Gulf countries. The US gradually transformed itself from a wealthy producer to a poor but militarily powerful consumer. In the new era, as long as cheap oil could be pried from the hands of client regimes throughout the world, the US lifestyle could be maintained and expanded. Essentially our economy began to thrive only by theft of other countries’ resources. This is of course the colonial model. Colonial-style exploitation (also known as empire building) as a method of gaining one’s living never lasts for very long. For the US, that wondrous period has now decisively come to an end. The old laws of economics no longer function. But our government does not yet fully comprehend that the rules have changed. The paradox of reliance on demand to generate prosperity has finally been resolved. Now we must somehow begin to earn our living rather than simply extract it from underground deposits of unexploited wealth. For a country of 300 million human inhabitants spread over a vast continent, and dependent on cheap transportation for its extravagant way of life, that transition must usher in an era of harsh necessity. How well the US will succeed in coping with this scary new age is as yet unknown.
But U.S. leaders won’t admit it. That’s the gist of a new study by World Public Opinion .org, a project of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland.
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll finds that majorities in 15 of 16 nations surveyed around the world think that oil is running out and governments should make a major effort to find new sources of energy. Most think that future oil prices will be much higher.So far so good! Most people around the world are perfectly capable of reading the handwriting on the oil well. That is a great relief, and as a bonus, that 70% common-sense majority worldwide lets us know that the persistently Bush-loving 30% of our populace has much in common with the same percentage of the rest of the uninformed schnooks on the planet. However… A majority in the United States (57%), the world’s biggest consumer of oil, believes their government is acting on the assumption that oil can remain a primary source of energy. This is also true in Nigeria (63%). However, while most Americans believe their government’s assumptions are incorrect, most Nigerians think it is correct.After all the aggressive propaganda spread by the Bush administration and their enablers in the broadcasting industry, people in the U.S. believe that their government is being fooled. That brings lucky USAmericans back to the eternal question of whether our top thinkers are criminals or merely fools. I vote “both.”
What a travesty!* Alan Greenspan now admits to a fifty percent chance of recession. He is really talking about a fifty percent chance for one of those life-changing catastrophes economists like to call a “depression,” presumably because a falling standard of living pushes most people into a gloomy state of mind.
As Greenspan knows, an economic day of reckoning has been inevitable since trade and budget deficits became structural features of our economy. Over long periods of time not even the mighty US of A can procure everything in return for little. Once imported oil became necessary for the functioning of a vast and scattered network of American towns and cities far from amber waves of anything, no other long-term outcome was possible. The signal crime of Greenspan, along with all the other happy-days economists who have been buzzing around since the Nixon administration, was that of concealing this wretched reality from the citizens, and presumably also from their Congress. It is very natural for the Majesty’s viziers to hide an awful truth from the monarch, lest they suddenly lose their heads in the telling of it. What our mighty Lears lacked was the honest Fool to whom they might listen with a third ear. Though several brave fools have presented themselves to occupy such a perilous post, none has fared better than any everyday whistle-blowing Cassandra, always right, never heeded. Who wants to announce that a mighty power, fresh from victory in two major wars, transported in a passionate flush of world leadership, is doomed to slow decline as its underground treasures dwindle? There arises a temptation to look away, to bargain with the twin devils of domestic concealment and overseas conquest, in search of additional pools of a crucial black liquid. When riding high and fast, it is inadvisable to look too hard at the ground beneath. Yet ignore the landscape entirely and soon one has wandered into desert, or storm, or hostile territory without considering the chance of real danger, probability fifty, sixty, seventy percent and rising.
Since the Bush/Blair Iraq comedy act first staggered onto the stage, news from the UK has remained only mildly skeptical about US policy and success in Iraq. Now from BBC, this blunt assessment portends an uptick in reality testing.
People the world over have been repelled by things that have been done here: things that are now associated with place-names like Abu Ghraib, Haditha, and Falluja.Spoken like a real ally, not just another yes-friend.
This first fragment of a manuscript, part of a stack of yellowing papers, was found in an ancient abandoned dwelling deep within the ruins of Old Baltimore. Strange and unknown words are used, and it is not known from what time period this document may have survived.
For these and certain other reasons, the publisher cannot suggest reading this tale, or history, as it may prove to be, at any hour near to midnight, in the gray shadows of a dark and drafty house. An unhealthy nervous state might follow. Nor, perhaps, should any person having a fragile or morose mental constitution read these words at all—even in the full light of noon—lest early insanity result! Reader, proceed with caution greater than the usual. This paper examines scientific and government studies in order to provide reliable conclusions about Peak Oil and its future impacts. Independent studies indicate that global oil production peaked in 2006 (or will peak within a few years) and will decline until all recoverable oil is depleted within several decades. Because global oil demand is increasing, declining production will soon generate high energy prices, inflation, unemployment, and irreversible economic depression.Only this and nothing more.
Political blood for political sex? Following are excerpts of John McCain’s statement given in closed session during the Senate trial of President Bill Clinton on Articles of Impeachment arising from Clinton’s sworn denial of any sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky.
Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona):Plausibly, John McCain violated his oath as a Senator in the course of his relationship with an employee of a lobbying firm. Might a thoroughgoing investigation of Senator McCain’s relationship with Vicki Iseman lead to his being questioned under oath about sexual relations in connection with political favors? I wonder how well Senator McCain might fare if he, like Bill Clinton, were “forced out of political necessity into a perjury trap.”
If the Bush administration gets away with killing six Guantanamo prisoners, we will certainly never learn the truth about the events of September 11, 2001. Here’s a good indication why the despicable Neocons want to kill these people: the government insists on having the ability to instantly cut off anything a defendant might say which would “violate national security.”
[The new court] also has a 30-seat adjacent room, behind a tempered-glass window, where observers can hear the proceedings on a broadcast basis – and a kill-switch where a security officer or the judge can cut the sound in case someone divulges a state secret.When in the whole history of state judicial proceedings has a criminal defendant been silenced because he might supposedly blurt out top secret government information? Probably such rules were invoked against the Salem witches, or in Stalin’s show trials, or to hide the abuses of secret courts during the Inquisition. This crude stratagem is obviously designed to conceal either the innocence of the defendants, the repugnant nature of the tortures used against them, or government culpability in allowing the attacks to occur. If such proceedings are allowed to proceed as planned, the United States will inevitably be remembered for centuries as a place whose justice system was irrevocably tainted by the greed and cowardice of a corrupt junta. Such farcical “trials” must ultimately guarantee the dissolution of the United States as we now understand it, as surely as the Nazi’s inhuman crimes ensured that the edifice of pre-WWII Germany would cease exist after Hitler’s downfall.
I can’t count the newspaper columns I’ve read lately in which the author professes to be puzzled… mystified… wonders why… just can’t understand the Democrats’ unwillingness to speak up (never mind doing something) about Republican crimes and the looting spree going on in Washington.
Guys and gals, please. There is nothing incomprehensible here. Remember that every criminal organization throughout history has used bribery and blackmail as powerful instruments of control. For example… Mister Senator, would you like to accept our new arrangement and lay your hands on a truckload of money, plus all the sex, wild parties and captive bird shooting you could wish for? Or would you rather have a few of your darkest secrets exposed to the world, so that TV anchors laugh at you, your spouse divorces you, and you must resign your job under a dark cloud? Which will it be? Anyone who thinks such techniques can only be used on Republicans, never on Democrats, is a fool. So there is your explanation, friend columnists! Democrats are tolerating these crimes for the same reason Republicans have been enabling them for the last seven years. Both teams are being bribed and blackmailed by the same big players. And of course our politicians are easy to persuade. There is no need to arrange a horse’s head under their sheets. They only need to be shown one or two embarrassing documents, ready to be “leaked” to the press by one of the “opposition research” teams currently operating in Washington. So, members of the press, now that I have cleared up your long-standing confusion, I’m sure you will be passing these insights along to your readers in tomorrow’s columns and news shows… won’t you? Uh, journalists? Writers? TV pundits? Strange, it appears that most members of the press have suddenly left the room. I just don’t get it. Why would someone with the integrity of, say, Chris Matthews, Maureen Dowd or Wolf Blitzer feel queasy right now? Is it something in the air here? Something I said? I am just so puzzled.
From Consortiumnews, the following is an edited transcript of Daniel Ellsberg’s speech delivered at the American University in Washington on September 20, 2007.
I think nothing has higher priority than averting an attack on Iran, which I think will be accompanied by a further change in our way of governing here that in effect will convert us into what I would call a police state.For more information on Daniel Ellsberg’s role in revealing the hidden nature of the U.S. war in Vietnam, please see the article at Consortiumnews, from which this post was drawn.
To understand why the U.S. marched into Iraq in 2003, please read this short article from Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Here’s the key paragraph, slightly condensed for clarity:
By 2010-2015 it will become incrementally more difficult to keep U.S. oil imports flowing, because Algeria and Russia will reach a state of declining production, and because production in Angola, Nigeria and Brazil will no longer increase at a rapid pace. The decrease in production can be offset, but only by large increases from Iraq. It is the only country where, with sufficient effort, oil production could rise rapidly in a timeframe of five years.Of the approximately 850 million gallons of crude oil which the U.S. consumes each day—yup, that’s our daily dose—about 500 million gallons are imported, every day of the year. Without a lot more oil from Iraq, the U.S. and many other countries will start to experience significant shortages of gasoline and other petroleum products within five years, possibly sooner. It’s a grim scenario that might be held off for a while, but only if additional crude becomes available soon. That’s why the U.S. invaded Iraq, and that’s why Cheney now insists on remaining there and subduing the Iraqis, who naturally want to kick the U.S. out of their country. But Cheney and his Neocon thugs will never gain exclusive control over Persian Gulf oil. Their cruel and destructive attempt to conquer Iraq has failed. That outcome was predictable from the start, not least because Iraq is an 8,000 mile airplane ride from the Pentagon. Hint to future power-mad U.S. administrations: if you suddenly feel a strong, irrational urge to conquer something, pick a small country closer to home, maybe a tiny Caribbean island. With persistence and luck, you might nail down the future supply of coconuts.
From Mark Kleiman, via Digby:
Anything that can be ridden on the Defense Appropriations bill (or on a continuing resolution) doesn’t need 60 votes in the Senate. It needs 51 votes in the Senate, or 218 in the House, that will stand firm.Kleiman is trying to get around the problem of a potential Republican filibuster against any bill that would force an end to the war. He points out that an amendment cannot, as a practical matter, be filibustered, and so requires only a simple majority in the Senate. Take, for example, the Webb Amendment, forbidding troops from being required to serve tours in Iraq longer than the spells between tours. If passed, it would force a troop drawdown by spring.Here a commenter called ronin makes a good point: What is the likelihood Lieberman or conservative Dems would stand behind such an amendment?This goes to the core of Reid’s problem: he can’t rely on his own party’s senators for 51 votes, and it’s making the majority leader look awful. Nancy and Harry don’t want to reveal any cracks in the facade of party unity, and so don’t set up votes in which those cracks might become obvious, or even widen. But at the moment that caution is pointless. For the Democrats, there is no face left to save. They can’t pass anything of substance. After all the high hopes for a Democratic legislature, that lack of results is making voters angry. The next step is to realize that we need to stop talking about “spineless” Democrats in general, and focus in on which particular Democrats are stopping progress on ending the war and how to embarrass them enough to make their continued support of the war cost them dearly. We bloggers can snipe at anyone, because we don’t have the Dem leaders’ job of creating a sense of unity. This reasoning in turn illuminates why Reid keeps talking about “compromise.” He is trying to lure Republicans over to accomplish what the Bush Dog Democrats are stopping him from doing within his own party. Reid, in his own way, is talking in code. He believes he cannot reveal in public that the Democrats are deeply divided. But by now it’s far too late for that charade. Voters want to see some substance. If the message has to be about bad Democrats impeding progress, so be it. That is better than no message at all, and the resulting impression that all Democrats are cowards.
Cached May 11, 2008, 9:14 pm (all times Eastern US)
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‘Nuff said.